Going into Week 3 one of the biggest difficulties in Fantasy Football rankings was parsing situations where Week 1 looked completely different from Week 2. I asked the question many times in the last seven days, "is Week 2 really more predictive?" Well, we have another week of information and in some instances, we have more clarity. We'll get to those cases in due time, but we must start with the biggest story of Week 3:
Andy Dalton has revived the Fantasy value of the Panthers
Dalton took over for the recently benched Bryce Young and the offense suddenly looked like an NFL offense. In fact, it looked better than most NFL offenses have this season. Carolina scored four touchdowns on a Raiders defense that had allowed a combined four touchdowns to the Chargers and Ravens in the first two weeks of the season. The team averaged 6.2 yards per play and didn't have a turnover. It was beautiful to watch, particularly if you had Diontae Johnson or Chuba Hubbard on your Fantasy Football roster.
Johnson saw a 45% target share, which led to an outburst of 26.2 PPR Fantasy points. Hubbard was even better with 27.9 points in full PPR. These guys were drafted as borderline starters and looked borderline droppable during the first two weeks of the season. In Week 4 I'll be bumping their volume and efficiency to the point that they'll likely be number two options at their position. The same goes for Dalton, who suddenly looks like a solid starter in a two-quarterback league.
While this is an article about what's changing for next week, it's worth saying that there could be one other big benefactor:JonathonJonathon Brooks. Brooks has a chance to be a top-12 running back when he's healthy and Dalton could make that a reality. He's still available in 17% of leagues, make sure that's not one of yours.
Malik Nabers is a WR1 every week
Nabers was held to 11 Fantasy points in Week 1 against the Vikings. In Week 2 he was a WR1, dominating the Washington Commanders to the tune of 28.7 PPR Fantasy points. We knew the Commanders were maybe the worst pass defense in football, so it was fair to wonder what we would get from Nabers in Week 2. What we got was six catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns...in the first half alone. It does not appear that Nabers' quarterback matters and it does not appear that the opposing defense matters. Nabers' target share is up to 29% in my Week 4 projections and he'll rank inside the top 12 until further notice.
Rachaad White has a Bucky Irving problem
For the third straight week, Irving was more effective as a rusher. This week the rookie picked up 70 yards on nine rush attempts while White ran six times for 17 yards. White has now been below three yards per carry in all three games this season. He's gone from 15 carries in Week 1, to 10 in Week 2, to six this week. For the season Irving now has 154 yards on 25 carries and even saw three targets in this game. In Week 4 I'll still project White for the most touches, but the gap between the two is rapidly shrinking. Neither back is better than a flex until something changes.
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Jalen Hurts may not be a must-start quarterback
Hurts had two more turnovers in Week 3 and didn't produce a touchdown. But my concern about his startability has very little to do with Hurts' play and everything to do with the fact that he was already without A.J. Browan and DeVonta Smith is in the concussion protocol. If Hurts is without his top two wide receivers it will be hard to consider him a must-start QB, though the opposite is true for Dallas Goedert. Goedert had a career day with 10 catches for 170 yards in Week 3 and should be Hurts' number one option as long as both Brown and Smith are out.
The Vikings defense is a matchup to avoid
The Vikings have now given up 30 total points in three weeks. Even in a league where scoring is down, they look like one of the best units in the league. Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy, and C.J. Stroud have now combined for two passing touchdowns and five interceptions with 15 sacks taken. It is going to be very difficult to trust Jordan Love if he makes his return this week and even harder to get behind one of the Packers pass catchers if he doesn't.
D'Andre Swift has more competition
Swift came into Week 3 averaging a meager two yards per carry but there was no sign that anyone may be a threat to his job. Oddly, Travis Homer being inactive may have changed that. Roschon Johnson was active on Sunday, and he was the Bears best back. Johnson led the Bears with 30 rushing yards on eight carries, which doesn't sound great until you see Swift at 13 carries for 20 yards. Johnson also turned five targets into four catches and 32 yards, while Swift caught two of his four targets. Swift's efficiency takes another big hit in my projections as does his volume. Heading into Week 4 you can't start Swift as anything more than a desperation flex and Johnson should be on everyone's waiver watch list.
The Chargers pass game is dead if they don't have Justin Herbert
This passing game was on life support as it was. They haven't had a 200-yard passing game yet. Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston are dominating targets and Johnston has three touchdowns, but they were low-end WR3s or upside flexes with their starting quarterback. Herbert re-aggravated his high ankle sprain on Sunday and faces a good Chiefs defense in Week 4. While he said he's hopeful to play against the Chiefs, the Chargers do have a bye in Week 5 so they have a chance to get their QB three weeks of rest. If they do that J.K. Dobbins is the only Charger you can start against Kansas City and even that is questionable.
Jauan Jennings is a must-add wide receiver
Jennings scored 46.5 PPR Fantasy points in Week 3. He scored 51 points last year. It was a remarkable outing that included Jennings earning a 40% target share and making multiple highlight-reel catches. He will be a difficult guy to rank in Week 4, but there's one thing for sure, he needs to be added everywhere. We have no reason to expect Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, or George Kittle in Week 4 and if they don't return we're probably starting Jennings. I've boosted him up to a 20% target share in my early Week 4 projections.
Dolphins may sink without Tua
The Dolphins ran 56 offensive plays against Seattle. They averaged 3.7 yards per pass play and 3.6 yards per rush play. De'Von Achane led the team with 58 yards from scrimmage and 8.8 PPR Fantasy points. Tyreek Hill led the team with 40 yards receiving and scored seven PPR Fantasy points. No one on the team saw a target share of even 20%. This was about as bad as we could have imagined. In the next three weeks the Dolphins face the Titans, the Patriots, then have a bye week. It's certainly possible you will need to start Achane or Hill, but I'd no longer call them must-start players. I'd go even further with Jaylen Waddle, you should be actively looking for someone to start over him.